GOOD MORNING!


US COMMODITIES


OPENING REVIEW


Friday, December 8, 2017


 


Current Review:  Corn is trading up 2-3 cents, soybeans up 2-3 cents, wheat up 1-2 cents, cattle down 10-20 cents and hogs down 10-20 cents.  If you would like opening calls via text or email, please call 1-800-247-4071.  View report estimates and crop ratings online CLICK HERE.  Need assistance marketing your grain? Ask about our personal Farmer Marketing Program.    Text or email usc@uscommodities.com with questions.


 


 


GRAINS: 


  1. Trends are mixed.

  2. Corn Day 6 of a buy signal.

  3. Oats in day 14 of a sell signal

  4. Soybeans day 1 of a sell signal

  5. Wheat day 16 of a sell signal

  6. Soymeal day 14 of a buy signal

  7. Open interest:

  8. Corn up 4,113 contracts, new selling, a negative.

  9. Soybeans down 6,403, January down 15,654, rest of months up, new selling, a negative.

  10. Wheat up 6,180, new selling, a negative.

  11. Funds are caught long the market

  12. Weather in S. Brazil and Argentina remain the main focus

  13. Models are slightly drier in central and northern Argentina in the next 10 days, a wetter pattern is forecast in the 11 to 15 day models.

  14. Brazil is now 95% planted on soybeans vs 90% last year

  15. Brazil is in good shape for the most part but a concern is in the southern part of Brazil, 2 to 3 weeks without rain would quickly change the concern with the crop.

  16. Argentina is now 45% planted vs 50% last year on soybeans (conditions are not ideal).

  17. 47% of the corn in Argentina is planted

  18. Argentina’s early corn crop (about 1/3 of the crop) will pollinate around Christmas (the weather watch will be keen)

  19. Argentina wheat is about 50% harvested, it is a good crop.

  20. No snow or moisture is forecast for the dry HRW wheat belt, it is not an issue today in the fall/winter, but is an issue for the spring if the pattern is not broken.

  21. Chinese soybeans were down 20 cents/bu overnight, while corn was up 4 cents/bu

  22. Chinese soybean imports are large, up 11 mmts vs a year ago, year to date.

  23. The monthly crop report will be released next Tuesday

  24. Not much change is expected on the US balance tables, down 10 mln on exports on soybeans and corn.

  25. Australia’s wheat crop could be cut 1 mmts and Canada’s wheat crop could be raised 3 mmts

  26. Argentina’s soybean crop could be dropped to 55 mmts vs 57 mmts by the USDA and corn could be dropped 1 mmts to 41 mmts (but probably is too early).

    USC’s computer system trends are positive March corn, 0.22 oversold, positive March 18 corn, 0.16 overbought, negative March wheat, 2.85 oversold, negative March soybeans, 0.13 overbought, negative November 18 soybeans, 0.13 overbought.

                The market has been anchored by wheat pushing into contract lows. Basis levels remain firmer.  Rallies to $3.65/bu on March corn, $10.20/bu on March soybeans, and $4.50/bu on March wheat are catchup marketing opportunities.  Call for specifics.

     

    CATTLE:


  1. Trends are down.

  2. February day 5 of a sell signal.

  3. June in day 5 of a sell signal.

  4. March Feeder Cattle day 5 of a sell signal.

  5. Open interest:

  6. December and February down 4,932 contracts, long selling, a negative.

  7. Other months, up new selling, a negative.

  8. Cattle weights are on the rise

  9. Weights as of November 25th were 904 lbs vs 902 lbs last week and 918 lbs last year (steer weights).

  10. Beef production last week was down 9.1% vs last year (481.6 mln lbs).

  11. Weather remains ideal for feeding cattle (a price negative)

  12. Choice beef was down $1.32/cwt at $205.08/cwt vs $204.64/cwt last week.

  13. February cattle have been down 6 days in a row and are now oversold.

  14. Cattle are at the 1st level of a counter trend buy zone.

  15. Export sales last week were terrible, 2,7000 T vs 12,275 T the prior week

  16. Product remains sluggish.

  17. Cattle traded this week at $116-118.50/cwt vs $119-121/cwt the prior week

  18. Back months of cattle are at USDA targets

  19. CME feeder index is $155.01.

  20. Boxed Beef: Choice down $1.32 to $205.08. Select down $0.28 to $183.83, C/S spread 21.25, 117 loads.

    USC’s computer trend system is negative February cattle, 1.49 oversold, negative June cattle, and 1.22 oversold, and negative March feeder cattle 1.37 oversold.

                The market is now deeply oversold. The market is due for a dead cat bounce.  Rallies are opportunities to catchup sales.  Call for specifics.

     

    HOGS:

  21. Trends are down.

  22. February hogs: day 2 of a sell signal.

  23. June hogs: day 1 of a sell signal.

  24. Open interest:

  25. December/February/April/July all lower, long liquidation, a negative, rest of months, new selling, a negative.

  26. Funds are caught long and liquidating positions.

  27. The 2 day index is at $65.30/cwt, up 45 cents

  28. The cutout is at $82.88/cwt, up 79 cents and vs $82.59/cwt last week.

  29. Weights are on the rise.

  30. IA/S.MN in the latest week, 286.9 lbs vs 285.8 lbs a week ago and 281.2 lbs last week

  31. Slaughter week to date is up 5.8%

  32. Do the increased weights mean hogs are backed up and slaughter will normalize?

  33. Strength has been on slaughter not matching USDA’s larger estimate and better demand.

  34. Demand for hams is now behind us.

  35. Lots of competing meat is available.

  36. Exports year to date are up 5.8% over a year ago.

  37. Carcass Cutout Values: $83.18/cwt, up $0.43/cwt.

  38. Daily direct hogs weighted average prices: ECB N/A, WCB $58.26, IA/MN $58.35, National $58.47.

  39. Pork Packer Margins a positive $47.56/head vs positive 43.54/head prior. Estimated margin at vertically integrated operations: positive $48.33/head vs positive 46.63/head prior.

    USC’s computer trend system is negative February hogs, 0.36 oversold, negative June hogs, 0.07 oversold.

                Hogs are mildly oversold.  Trends are down, seasonals are down.  Rallies are catchup risk management opportunities.  Call for specifics.

                           

    ENERGIES:  Oil is trading up $0.90/barrel, $57.60.  Natural gas is $2.80, gold is $1248/oz, and silver is $15.82/oz, platinum $892/oz, copper $2.95 /lb.  Oil rose, paring a second weekly loss, as strong Chinese crude imports allayed concerns that U.S. markets may remain oversupplied. China’s crude oil imports rebounded from a one-year low to near a record amid signs the nation’s commercial stockpiles shrank by the most in almost eight years. U.S. crude output increased to a record last week, while motor fuel inventories rose more than double analysts’ forecasts, government data showed Wednesday. Gold’s heading for the biggest weekly drop since May as investors anticipate higher U.S. interest rates and as progress on tax reform buoys the dollar, marking a spectacular reversal for the metal which less than two weeks ago flirted with $1,300.

     

     

08127.jpg


18127.jpg


28127.jpg


38127.jpg



48127.jpg


58127.jpg


68127.jpg




This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of US Commodities Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by US Commodities Inc. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.


DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW.  PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS.  TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.


The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that US Commodities Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.






Livestock Market
Date IA/MN Top WCB Cattle Cash Hogs 0.00% Carcass
Cut out
Value
11/17/2017 57.14 57.00 118.91 - 62.26 80.96
11/20/2017 56.31 56.37 119.51 - 61.36 82.27
11/21/2017 56.85 56.86 117.95 - 61.29 80.87
11/22/2017 56.81 56.81 118.99 - 61.12 81.98
11/23/2017 NA          
11/24/2017 57.83 57.69 120.35 - 60.74 82.32
11/27/2017 57.10 57.09 120.50 - 60.18 82.58
11/28/2017 58.23 58.08 - - 60.09 82.23
11/29/2017 59.02 58.99 - - 59.88 83.45
11/30/2017 59.84 59.83 - - 59.96 83.40
12/01/2017 58.78 58.77 120.68 - 60.39 83.35
 





Percent of Total Hogs Priced at:
 2015       2016      
 FebApr JunJulAugOctDec FebApr JunJulAugOctDec
Market Tops       Market Tops       
100-104.993.95%7.84%5.78%6.67%0.95%  100-104.99       
95-99.9911.38% 4.36%6.67%   95-99.99       
90-94.9915.17%13.77%13.09%20.00%5.45%  90-94.99  1.50%15.66%8.39%  
85-89.9912.90%4.66%13.99%6.67%9.24%5.12% 85-89.99  18.32%31.31%19.95%  
80-84.9927.62%24.36%36.59%46.67%21.56%2.67% 80-84.99 5.11%25.23%15.66%19.50%  
75-79.9924.43%14.83%11.94% 7.82%1.56%3.69%75-79.9912.87%1.64%6.01%5.05%12.24%4.42% 
70-74.994.55%25.42%14.25%13.33%48.10%21.83%22.96%70-74.996.80%16.97%40.54%15.66%19.27%15.90%8.65%
65-69.99 5.30%  6.87%18.04%12.14%65-69.9911.21%10.22%8.41%12.63%13.38%11.68%5.61%
60-64.99 3.81%   35.19%28.50%60-64.9930.88%49.08% 4.04%7.26%21.79%14.57%
55-59.99     12.92%24.54%55-59.9937.13%11.86%   26.01%16.69%
50-54.99     2.67%8.18%50-54.991.10%5.11%   20.22%18.06%
        45-49.100      28.38%
        40-44.100      8.04%
Successful Marketing
This current marketing period includes in excess of 1 Million hogs. To date they
have been priced as illustrated above.
 





Risk Management ---- Average Pricing History
The following is a pricing history of Agri Control Co. (Donald M Fedie) for the sum total of all forward contracts, options, and futures hedges placed for all clients during the years displayed.
 Forward Contracts Floor Options Hedged Futures Sum Total
YearRangeAverageRangeAverageRangeAverageAveraged
200252.00 / 54.6552.7928.00 / 53.0042.7136.52 / 52.0545.51$47.00
200348.87 / 69.8057.0132.00 / 72.0054.6656.12 / 64.0059.57$57.08
200449.92 / 77.7562.2244.00 / 74.0061.6855.35 / 77.0563.73$62.54
200553.85 / 81.0065.6748.00 / 72.0061.2253.70 / 80.5567.74$64.88
200650.30 / 73.2563.0254.00 / 54.0054.0054.70 / 72.0063.72$60.25
200754.00 / 78.4565.69NoneN/A55.70 / 66.9059.32$62.51
200858.00 / 79.4070.8160.00 / 72.0062.2555.70 / 79.0570.49$67.85
200956.25 / 100.0080.5148.00 / 80.0062.8664.20 / 96.1068.95$70.78
201052.25 / 85.5568.5448.00 / 92.0069.6355.85 / 82.0067.93$68.70
201169.50 / 101.8083.4560. / 10081.7872.00 / 100.48 78.97$81.40
201283.85 / 100.8590.8068 / 10882.8998.75 / 99.5592.32$88.67
201380.37 / 100.1589.8470 / 11685.8177.98 /100.1587.75$87.80
201476.40 / 118.6288.7270 / 13699.7380.45 /131.9590.96$93.14
201561.20 / 85.8581.0854 / 10479.1661.20 / 9059.88$73.37
201670.80 / 79.5076.4140 / 9067.4944.80 / 79.9557.32$67.07
 





 
Home   |   About Us   |   Services   |   Products   |   Education   |   Contact Us

Profit Guard   |   Profit Trak   |   How To Farm for Profit   |   Meet the Founders
This website is proudly designed and hosted at Gage eServices in Sioux Falls, SD. Visit http _www.geshosting.com.htm