GOOD MORNING!


US COMMODITIES


OPENING REVIEW


Friday, October 20, 2017


 


Current Review:  Corn is trading up 1 cents, soybeans up 2-4 cents, wheat up 1-2 cents, cattle down 10-30 cents and hogs mixed.  If you would like opening calls via text or email, please call 1-800-247-4071.  View report estimates and crop ratings online CLICK HERE.  Need assistance marketing your grain? Ask about our personal Farmer Marketing Program.    Text or email usc@uscommodities.com with questions.


 


           


GRAINS: 


  1. Trends are mixed.  Corn is in day 13 of a sell signal, oats in day 22 of a buy signal, wheat in day 15 of a sell signal, KC wheat is in day 5 of a buy signal, and soybeans in day 11 of a buy signal and soymeal in day 5 of a buy signal, soyoil in day 12 of a sell signal.

  2. Open interest was up in all the grains yesterday. Corn was up 18,597 (new buying, a positive), soybeans up 4,709 (new buying, a positive), and wheat up 13,747 contracts (new buying, a positive).

  3. The new buying across the board was a positive yesterday (we will see).

  4. The market is getting a relief from the EPA, which is indicating they do not plan any changes to the RFS.

  5. An announcement on the US bio fuels program could release today in regards to the tariffs against imported diesel (could be a positive today).

  6. Soyoil has the best fundamentals as domestic vegoil supplies will tighten, soymeal supplies will grow, and the trade crush to get more soyoil for biodiesel.

  7. The South American weather forecast is the same as prior runs, increased rain will start in the north and central Brazil the last week of October, and these rains will be timely.

  8. The Midwest forecast is wet for the weekend, showers will spread from the Delta into the ECB and WCB, 0.25-1 inch of rain is forecast, another system is forecast the end of October producing 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain.

  9. Harvest progress is brisk in the Midwest.

  10. China auctioned some state owned corn reserves from the 2012 crop, 450,000 bu at $4.40/bu, 2013 and 2014 reserves sold for $5.50/bu, 86 mln bu sold, no soybean sold.

  11. Chinese soybeans closed for the week up 2 cents/bu, but down 40 cents/bu on the week vs the soybeans down 14 cents/bu.

  12. China continues to push and protect ethanol production (expand 6 fold in the next few years).

  13. The 2018 acres projections are beginning to be debated.

  14. Currently the yield mix favors soybeans.

  15. An extended soybean or corn rally will now need to come from South American weather.

  16. Argentina corn is 25 cents/bu under US corn.

  17. Argentina has no corn export tax and is expected to cut the soybean export tax.

  18. Average crop insurance price for fall: $3.495/bu corn and $9.75/bu soybeans.

    USC’s computer system trends are negative December corn, 0.19 oversold, negative March 18 corn, 0.13 overbought, negative December wheat, 0.75 oversold, positive November soybeans, 0.45 overbought, positive March 18 soybeans, 0.46 overbought.

                The market remains range bound. USC wants to use rallies to extend sales of old and new crop grain.  Supplies remain large in the US and world.  Carries are the marketing advantage.  USC favors risk management near $3.90-3.95/bu on July corn, $4.00-4.05/bu on December 18 corn, $4.15-4.20/bu on December 19 corn, $10.30-10.40/bu on July soybeans,$10.10-10.20/bu on November 2018 soybeans, $10.05-10.10/bu on November 2019 soybeans, and $4.95-5.00/bu on July wheat.

     

    CATTLE:

  19. Trends are down in cattle. December is in day 3 of a sell signal. June cattle are in day 3 of a sell signal.  Feeder cattle are in day 3 of a sell signal.

  20. Open interest was down 783 contracts, short covering in October and December, new buying in the back months.

  21. Open interest is giving a mixed signal (choppy).

  22. The cattle on feed report will be issued today.

  23. The average estimates are COF Oct 1st, 104.6%, Placements 108.0%, and Marketing 102.6%.

  24. The cutout was up $2.31/cwt yesterday, to $199.57/cwt vs $197.44/cwt a week ago (an August 11th high).

  25. Steer weights for the week ending October 7th, wre 895 lbs vs 894 lbs a week ago and 909 lbs last year.

  26. Beef production for the week ending October 7th was up 1.3%.

  27. Export sales for the latest week October 12th were 13,600 mts vs 15,500 on the 4 week average.

  28. Year to date sales are up 9.1% vs last year.

  29. The higher beef yesterday was a bit of a surprise

  30. Basis levels are $4/cwt too wide in December vs the average.

  31. Cattle this week were traded at $110/cwt and $173/cwt dressed.

  32. CME feeder index is $155.08.

  33. Boxed Beef: Choice up $2.31 to $199.57. Select up 1.67 to $190.76, C/S spread 8.81, 149 loads.

    USC’s computer trend system is negative December cattle, 0.06 overbought, negative June cattle, 0.03 overbought, and negative November feeder cattle, 0.35 oversold.

                The market remains choppy.  Call for updates.

     

    HOGS:


  1. Trends are up December hogs are in day 4 of a buy signal and June in day 15 of a buy signal. 

  2. The December hogs are the 1st level of a counter trend sell (1.7 times overbought).

  3. Open interest was up 2,129 contracts yesterday, all months except June were up, this is a positive buying trend.

  4. The cutout was up 79 cents yesterday to $73.67/cwt vs $73.35/cwt a week ago.

  5. The 2-day index is at $63.34/cwt, up $1.13/cwt vs $58.32/cwt a week ago.

  6. The cutout remains the key.

  7. Red meat supplies in September were a record.

  8. Pork production in September was up 2% vs last year.

  9. Pork production year to date is up 2.9%.

  10. Export sales in the latest week (October 12th) was 11,400 mts vs the 4 week average of 23,400 mts.

  11. The export sales were the 2nd lowest of the year in the latest report.

  12. Export sales year to date are up 7.5%.

  13. December basis levels indicate December hogs should be at $56-58/cwt but cash is on a rally.

  14. Carcass Cutout Values: $74.32/cwt, up $0.44/cwt.

  15. Daily direct hogs weighted average prices: ECB N/A, WCB $64.07, IA/MN $64.19, National $63.42.

  16. Pork Packer Margins a positive $15.27/head vs positive 16.79/head prior. Estimated margin at vertically integrated operations: positive $28.52 /head vs positive 26.83/head prior.

    USC’s computer trend system is positive December hogs, 1.73 overbought, positive June hogs, 0.17

                The supply fundamentals remain negative but the technicals remain positive as cash is advancing. Watch the cutout for signs of a top.  Call for updates.

                           

    ENERGIES:  Oil is trading down $0.50 /barrel, $50.83.  Natural gas is $2.90, gold is $1284/oz, and silver is $17.13/oz, platinum $924/oz, copper $3.20/lb.  A surge in crude prices faded as Iraq sought to restore flows from fields in a disputed region after violence had curbed output in OPEC’s second-biggest producer.

    Futures fell 0.9 percent in London, further eroding the gain of 3.4 percent from last Friday through Wednesday as tensions flared in the Kirkuk province. Engineers were said to be working to replace equipment missing from fields in the region that Iraqi government troops recaptured this week from Kurdish forces. U.S. government data published Wednesday has deepened the slide, showing gasoline stockpiles rose for a fourth week while distillates expanded for the first time since August.

    While oil investors are grappling with geopolitical risks, the potential impact of tensions in the Middle East is uncertain, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Tuesday. While the conflict between Iraq’s central government and the semi-autonomous Kurds cut crude flows through a Turkish pipeline, the disruption may be short lived. Meanwhile, OPEC sent its strongest signal yet that its output cuts will be extended until the end of 2018.

     

020107.jpg


120107.jpg



220107.jpg





320107.jpg


420107.jpg



Vegetative health (red) looks dire for Brazil soybeans coffee, but overzealous -Best rains in weeks to ease

520107.jpg



620107.jpg



720107.jpg


820107.jpg


This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of US Commodities Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by US Commodities Inc. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.


DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW.  PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS.  TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.


The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that US Commodities Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.






Livestock Market
Date IA/MN Top WCB Cattle Cash Hogs 0.00% Carcass
Cut out
Value
09/20/2017 48.19 48.03 107.90 - 51.02 73.33
10/02/2017 49.54 49.41 108.19 - 50.96 72.78
10/03/2017 50.67 50.59 - - 51.21 72.46
10/04/2017 51.86 51.86 106.50 - 51.44 72.88
10/05/2017 53.03 52.98 108.28 - 51.80 72.88
10/06/2017 53.74 53.63 109.82 - 52.53 72.61
10/09/2017 54.47 54.47 109.48 - 53.21 73.54
10/10/2017 55.22 55.13 - - 54.33 73.71
10/11/2017 56.10 56.06 - - 55.20 73.67
10/12/2017 57.56 57.54 110.00 - 55.90 73.82
10/13/2017 58.13 58.16 111.05 - 56.41 74.44
 





Percent of Total Hogs Priced at:
 2015       2016      
 FebApr JunJulAugOctDec FebApr JunJulAugOctDec
Market Tops       Market Tops       
100-104.993.95%7.84%5.78%6.67%0.95%  100-104.99       
95-99.9911.38% 4.36%6.67%   95-99.99       
90-94.9915.17%13.77%13.09%20.00%5.45%  90-94.99  1.50%15.66%8.39%  
85-89.9912.90%4.66%13.99%6.67%9.24%5.12% 85-89.99  18.32%31.31%19.95%  
80-84.9927.62%24.36%36.59%46.67%21.56%2.67% 80-84.99 5.11%25.23%15.66%19.50%  
75-79.9924.43%14.83%11.94% 7.82%1.56%3.69%75-79.9912.87%1.64%6.01%5.05%12.24%4.42% 
70-74.994.55%25.42%14.25%13.33%48.10%21.83%22.96%70-74.996.80%16.97%40.54%15.66%19.27%15.90%8.65%
65-69.99 5.30%  6.87%18.04%12.14%65-69.9911.21%10.22%8.41%12.63%13.38%11.68%5.61%
60-64.99 3.81%   35.19%28.50%60-64.9930.88%49.08% 4.04%7.26%21.79%14.57%
55-59.99     12.92%24.54%55-59.9937.13%11.86%   26.01%16.69%
50-54.99     2.67%8.18%50-54.991.10%5.11%   20.22%18.06%
        45-49.100      28.38%
        40-44.100      8.04%
Successful Marketing
This current marketing period includes in excess of 1 Million hogs. To date they
have been priced as illustrated above.
 





Risk Management ---- Average Pricing History
The following is a pricing history of Agri Control Co. (Donald M Fedie) for the sum total of all forward contracts, options, and futures hedges placed for all clients during the years displayed.
 Forward Contracts Floor Options Hedged Futures Sum Total
YearRangeAverageRangeAverageRangeAverageAveraged
200252.00 / 54.6552.7928.00 / 53.0042.7136.52 / 52.0545.51$47.00
200348.87 / 69.8057.0132.00 / 72.0054.6656.12 / 64.0059.57$57.08
200449.92 / 77.7562.2244.00 / 74.0061.6855.35 / 77.0563.73$62.54
200553.85 / 81.0065.6748.00 / 72.0061.2253.70 / 80.5567.74$64.88
200650.30 / 73.2563.0254.00 / 54.0054.0054.70 / 72.0063.72$60.25
200754.00 / 78.4565.69NoneN/A55.70 / 66.9059.32$62.51
200858.00 / 79.4070.8160.00 / 72.0062.2555.70 / 79.0570.49$67.85
200956.25 / 100.0080.5148.00 / 80.0062.8664.20 / 96.1068.95$70.78
201052.25 / 85.5568.5448.00 / 92.0069.6355.85 / 82.0067.93$68.70
201169.50 / 101.8083.4560. / 10081.7872.00 / 100.48 78.97$81.40
201283.85 / 100.8590.8068 / 10882.8998.75 / 99.5592.32$88.67
201380.37 / 100.1589.8470 / 11685.8177.98 /100.1587.75$87.80
201476.40 / 118.6288.7270 / 13699.7380.45 /131.9590.96$93.14
201561.20 / 85.8581.0854 / 10479.1661.20 / 9059.88$73.37
201670.80 / 79.5076.4140 / 9067.4944.80 / 79.9557.32$67.07
 





 
Home   |   About Us   |   Services   |   Products   |   Education   |   Contact Us

Profit Guard   |   Profit Trak   |   How To Farm for Profit   |   Meet the Founders
This website is proudly designed and hosted at Gage eServices in Sioux Falls, SD. Visit http _www.geshosting.com.htm